When Will COVID-19 End
Data-Driven Estimation of End Dates (updated on April 28)
This site provides continuous predictive monitoring of COVID-19 developments as a complement to monitoring confirmed cases. SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model is regressed with data from different countries to estimate the pandemic life cycle curves and predict when the pandemic might end in respective countries and the world, with codes from Milan Batista and data from Our World in Data. Given the rapidly changing situations, the predictive monitors are updated daily with the latest data. Motivation, theory, method, and caution are in this paper.
*Disclaimer: Content from this website is STRICTLY ONLY for educational and research purposes and may contain errors. The model and data are inaccurate to the complex, evolving, and heterogeneous realities of different countries. Predictions are uncertain by nature. Readers must take any predictions with caution. Overly optimism based on some predicted end dates is dangerous because it may loosen our disciplines and controls and cause the turnaround of the virus and infection, and must be avoided.
#RobertReview: 10 | 10
Q. Do you believe this report?
Many people don’t.
It factors in only the Coronavirus First Wave, the first clusters in a country which originated from the epicenter of Wuhan.
It does not factor in Second Wave of returning nationals and foreigners entering the country.
It does not factor in the Third Wave when coronavirus becomes a ‘common’ flu bu with at least a 1% death rate.
Published: 28th April 2020.
Updated: 1st May 2020.